Mid-Year Transportation Market Review: What’s Still Ahead for Shippers?

Shippers continue to take hits in 2026. Rates have spiked, capacity has tightened, risks are multiplying, and uncertainty remains. 

If the last six months of 2026 had you wishing for normalcy, hold on tight to supply chain partners you can rely on, because in Q3 and Q4, you’ll get by with a little help from friends. Here’s our mid-year market update to help you plan for what’s ahead.

Rates spike, capacity constricts, shippers respond

At the end of 2025, experts were predicting a modest increase in rates in 2026. But no one expected what has happened in the first half of 2026. According to ACT Research’s July Freight Forecast, as of June, dry van TL spot rates, net fuel, have risen 45% over the past year. Dry van contract rates, net fuel, have risen 12%. On top of that, spot capacity remains very tight. Equipment posts have fallen 17% during the same period.

In our 2025 recap post, Russell Thorp, V.P Sales & Logistics at TA Dedicated speculated that in this uncertain market where anything can happen, a large rate bump that defies expectations coupled with an ELP-driven drop in capacity would leave unprepared shippers in the lurch. His prediction came true in 2026 as we’ve seen a combination of regulatory and enforcement forces combine to decrease supply, spike rates and drastically restrict capacity. Notably, tender rejections have increased dramatically, hitting 14.3% for dry van as of July 30th, per FT Today.

That same post also warned of the growing demand for flatbed capacity. We were right with that prediction, too.  Tender rejections for flatbed have soared past 40% this year. Our post from Q1 dives deep into the data center boom driving this trend and the absolute necessity for shippers to lock in rates and capacity in this market.

Then as now, dedicated fleets provide advantages, considering the unreliability of contracts in this market and the rising costs of running a private fleet. During the first week of June, 80% of carriers went back to shippers to rebid and reprice all contract freight, according to survey results presented by Dean Croake of DAT during the TMSA ELEVATE conference.

Driver shortage gets real as industry feels the effect

Over the years, shippers have become accustomed to the expected shortfall of drivers. Recent events have struck home in a new way though, as shippers have seen what happens when drivers are removed en masse from the labor market. The rate spike, tender rejections, and contract uncertainty have been keenly felt. ”The real cost to shippers will come from the compromises they make on service and risk. As the driver pool continues to shrink it’s important to hold good carriers close to you,” Thorp says.

Our 2025 recap post described regulatory and compliance circumstances immediately in front of us, and the impact they were anticipated to have on available drivers.  At the halfway mark of 2026, we have a clearer picture of the effects and what to expect over the next 6 months. 

Top Enforcement Moves Removing Drivers 

1. Non-renewal of non-domiciled CDLs. In the 2025 recap, McNeil stated, “As trucks come off the road, you can already see some tightening which is creating uncertainty.” Halfway through the year, this has already come true. More than 28,000 illegally issued licenses have been revoked nationwide as of May according to the FMCSA.
2. English language proficiency (ELP) violations. In our 2025 recap, we also correctly predicted increased enforcement of ELP requirements would constrict capacity, especially in drayage because of its reliance on foreign-born drivers. According to Railway Age, the June Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index reports all regions are now at “elevated concern” due to drayage capacity exits. As of July this year, Federal enforcement is placing about 2,000 drivers a month out-of-service for ELP failure, according to Transportation Topics.
3. Increased oversight of Entry Level Driver Training Programs. Increased enforcement by the Transportation Department creates barriers to new drivers entering the market, and could lead to the revocation of former students’ certification. AP News reports that a federal review found close to 44% of reviewed trucking schools had compliance issues. About 3,000 schools faced possible removal from the federal registry, while another 4,500 received warnings.
4. Drug and alcohol clearinghouse crackdown. Since 2024, state licensing agencies have been required to remove commercial driving privileges from drivers listed as “prohibited” in FMCSA’s Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse until they complete a formal return-to-duty process. That amounts to over 200,000 drivers today, according to APCA.

The recent Montgomery ruling proves to not just be a broker-thing

The Supreme Court’s decision on broker liability landed last May in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC. Translation: Brokers can now be held liable under state tort law for negligent hiring. The ramifications for freight brokers are huge. Just two months after the ruling, C.H. Robinson, the broker involved in the Montgomery ruling, was found negligent in a different trial in which the jury reached a $600 million verdict in a case involving a carrier C.H. Robinson had hired.

Expect a period of turmoil as freight brokers adjust. In addition to this new exposure to risk, brokers have new and escalating insurance expenses.  They must also implement robust vetting and monitoring programs for carriers. We anticipate that those costs will translate to higher rates that brokers quote and charge to shippers in the near future.

This is only the beginning of the effects cascading down to shippers. “Montgomery is primarily a safety issue, which is a good thing. In the coming months, carriers with poor safety ratings who depend on broker freight are going to lose access to loads as brokers scrutinize who they work with more carefully. But for safe, compliant carriers with an established safety record, like TA Dedicated, it’s business as usual,” explains Russell Thorp, V.P Sales & Logistics at TA Dedicated.

Our recent post on the Montgomery ruling details safety’s new sway in procurement. Shippers need to scrutinize carriers’ compliance records, training and tracking. They should also brace to pay a premium for outstanding safety. “The Montgomery ruling changes how risk gets priced and distributed across the freight market,” Thorp says.

The specter of shippers’ liability has also appeared post-Montgomery. Although the ruling doesn’t make shippers liable, there is already chatter regarding extending liability further upstream. A recent post in the Insurance Journal states, “Although plaintiffs have already begun citing Montgomery in an effort to expand liability across the transportation chain, the decision itself is narrow, broker-specific, and notably silent on shippers.”

High fleet operating costs get higher

The cost of operating a commercial fleet continues to climb. Ops costs reached a record high of $2.336 per mile in 2025 per the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking: 2026 Update. That’s an increase of 3.4% over 2024. Every line-item except for permits and licenses increased.

In our 2025 recap post, Thorpe commented that aging fleets cost more from the increased maintenance needs and they tend to be less efficient which leads to higher fuel costs and emissions. Thorp’s observation continues to be affirmed as fleet maintenance costs continue to rise. A key finding of ATRI’s Analysis is the 8.6% increase in Repair & Maintenance. Our 2025 recap post pointed to rising costs as the average age of American trucks hit 6.6 years.

Two other costs to note are truck payments and insurance premiums. Interest rates remain high and insurance costs have been climbing steadily for years, jumping over 18% in four years, per ATRI.

Rising costs will continue to impact contract carriers’ profitability and the rates they must charge. Private fleets are far from immune to rising ops costs. According to an NPTC survey cited in our 2026 Outlook post, inhouse fleets’ costs are 4.8% higher than those of for-hire carriers.

Thorp explains some of the reasons, “When you start a private fleet, you’re no longer just a manufacturer, distributor, retailer or OEM. You’ve also started a trucking company, and you have to deal with everything from equipment investment and driver recruitment to safety management and technology upgrades.”

“Outsourcing to contract carriers or a dedicated fleet provider enables you to benefit from their widescale expertise and economies of scale” continues Thorp.  “Especially in this environment, outsourcing allows shippers to offload the costs, risks and exposure that come with running a trucking company.”

Tariffs taking a bite out of margins

July brought the latest round of tariffs imposing duties of 10 to 12.5% for over 80 countries, but shippers can hardly expect that to be the end of it.

Amidst periodic tariff announcements and continuous changes, resilient partners who can facilitate network reconfigurations, port shifts, capacity increases, expedited deliveries, and routing or consolidation efficiencies are integral to building a flexible supply chain.

Import surges to increase inventory ahead of tariffs increase the need to scale capacity and make temporary port, drayage, warehousing and truckload pivots. McKinsey’s 2025 survey of supply chain leaders reported that 45% of tariff-affected companies favor increasing inventory as a mitigation strategy. Now is the time to ask whether your network provides the agility and access to respond and implement processes to adjust inventory dynamically based on tariff exposure, lead times, and demand forecasts.

Sourcing is shifting. Among tariff-affected companies surveyed by McKinsey, 39% were pursuing dual sourcing, while 33% were developing nearshoring or onshoring plans. Have you built the foundation for a resilient and complex network that includes more suppliers and origin countries, smaller volumes per supplier, and more inbound transportation lanes? That’s challenging with today’s high carrier rejection rates or with a private fleet built for more predictable times.

As manufacturers’ costs rise from tariffs, they’re looking to supply chains for cost efficiencies. In KPMG’s survey of C-suite executives, 51% were adjusting distribution channels in response to tariffs. The reason is that manufacturers aren’t passing 100% of tariff costs onto end customers. They’re only passing 45% of tariff costs to consumers, according to the McKinsey survey. The remainder comes from sourcing changes, supplier concessions and their profit margins.

As the imperative to squeeze cost savings and efficiencies out of supply chains increases, shippers must look to network design, route optimization, and load optimization for competitive advantages that preserve margins moving forward. Shippers that have engrained supply chain engineering into their transportation networks will have the advantage of making continuous optimizations at the macro and micro level.

Will Technology save the day?

Supply chain engineering tools are stepping up to the challenge of optimizing networks to respond to necessary port pivots and advantages in adding or changing DCs and more. As global supply chains continue to shift origins, experience delays, and circumvent disruptions, the speed of advanced systems and capabilities of AI and predictive analytics are enabling shippers to strategize and execute in a time frame that makes a difference.

Our recent supply chain engineering white paper explores the opportunities available to shippers through today’s technology in detail. Amidst the turmoil of 2026, the potential is clear for shippers to recapture margins through network analysis and dynamic route and load optimization.

The opportunity exists for significant reduction in transportation costs from optimizing everything from DC locations and routing to yard configuration and freight consolidation.

Shippers can’t control tariffs; however they can ensure the most efficient route based on the ordering of stops, weather, traffic, fuel prices en route, and HOS limitations. Technology investment or partnership with technology-enabled transportation partners is a priority. Dynamic route optimization is gaining adoption because of the dramatic improvement over manual route planning. Efficient route planning and load building yield a 5-15% reduction in operational costs, according to ORTEC, a leading supply chain software developer.

As costs continue to erode margins for all shippers, technology provides the competitive advantage. Research from Accenture reveals that companies with the most mature supply chains are 23% more profitable than peers.

The imperative to “mature” doesn’t require capital investment. Partnering with technology-enabled partners preserves capital and relieves the burden of upgrades. Supply chain engineering has become a key offering of TA Dedicated. As a dedicated fleet provider offering SCE, TA Dedicated minimizes the time gap between optimization and execution.

“It’s just what shippers need now when they need to push the performance standards and reactivity of supply chains to new levels,” says Shawn Miller, TA Dedicated’s Director of Supply Chain Engineering.

Freight fraud gets bigger and bolder

Technology is also coming to the rescue of shippers navigating an environment where freight fraud is increasing in sophistication and severity. While CargoNet reports that the number of theft incident reports decreased 5.3% from Q1 2025 to Q1 2026, they also report the average value of cargo thefts increased to $341,518 per incident.

Thieves have become more selective, and according to an FBI Public Service Announcement, they are employing more advanced methods that combine digital and physical means as well as legitimate and spoofed entities.

“Vulnerabilities in hand-offs between digital platforms, shady actors on load boards, and the shortcomings of vetting digitally gave birth to the current fraud environment and continue to enable its evolution,” Thorpe explains.

Carrier vetting technologies continue to improve, but two realities remain. The first is the reality that it’s the nature of criminals to adapt. The second is that as more shippers go on load boards and add carriers to cover loads amidst scarce capacity, incidents of freight fraud are likely to increase.

“The reality is that the only way to prevent freight fraud is to not let it into a network in the first place,” says Rob McNeil, Senior VP of Sales & Supply Chain Solutions at TA Dedicated. “This is where private and dedicated fleets will always have an advantage by being a closed loop of trusted drivers.”

Shippers need a stability strategy

Today’s fractured freight market and freight environment has shippers looking hard at their existing transportation models. They’re asking what’s the best way to stabilize rates and guarantee they’ll have the capacity they need. It is also impossible for shippers to ignore the rising safety and security risks out there.

The solutions shippers should be looking at right now are not transactional, they’re relational. Contract carriers or even a private fleet can’t provide a complete solution with the flexibility, reliability, and stability shippers need. Proof of this appears in a recent white paper where we pointed out that private fleets already outsource 29% of their capacity.

“In today’s market, transportation isn’t just about moving freight anymore,” Thorp explains. “It’s about controlling risk, protecting service, preserving capital and creating supply chain stability in an increasingly volatile environment.”

By taking on all the operational complexity of transportation out there while operating as an extension of shippers’ operations, dedicated fleets are a logical option no matter which way tariffs, torts, costs, rates or capacity go.

Let’s talk. Reach out to TA Dedicated’s fleet and supply chain experts today online at:  https://www.tadedicated.com/contact-us/