Transportation 2025: The Year When Uncertainty Was the Only Certainty

2025 was a year where uncertainties never let up and events changed the supply chain almost weekly. The industry spent the year on the edge of their seats waiting to see what would happen next. Now that 2025’s almost over, most of us are left wondering “What just happened?”

To help our friends at fleets and throughout the supply chain make sense of it all, we’ve recapped the key takeaways from a year that everyone in trucking will be glad to see go away.

Rising fleet costs across the trucking industry

Just when we thought the costs of trucking couldn’t rise any higher without driving every trucker from the industry, they did it again. ATRI research reported a new record in 2025 with ops costs rising to $1.779 per mile. Insurance and truck payments are the main culprits from this year’s updated report.

The ramifications of high ops costs in combination with anemic freight rates (more on that further on) bankrupted 41 carriers just in Q2 and Q3 this year. “Many shippers are working with carriers that are on life support,” observes Russell Thorp, VP of Sales & Logistics at TA Dedicated. “It’s a risky situation for shippers to be in. Suddenly losing 100% of their capacity from a carrier puts them in a very bad spot.”

High trucking costs are hitting private fleets especially hard. The National Private Truck Council (NPTC) Benchmarking Survey Report 2025 revealed that private fleet costs have risen 8.3% CAGR over the past four years while public for-hire fleets’ costs have risen 3.5% CAGR over the same period.

Costs were named as the top concern of fleets by 61% of private fleets in the NPTC survey. These cost worries coincided with private fleets making a noticeable move to avoid costs through outsourcing. The NPTC report states that over 4% of private fleets’ outbound freight moved to for-hire in 2025.

Aging equipment

The average age of class 8 trucks in private fleets hit 6.6 years in 2025. This is up from 6.1 years in 2024, according to the NPTC survey.

Not only did private fleets grow older in 2025 by six months, they grew considerably older than the industry average for fleets. Traditionally fleets replace equipment after 3-5 years, according to ACT Research.

Aging fleets cost more from the increased maintenance needs and they tend to be less efficient which leads to higher fuel costs and emissions, according to Thorp.

High maintenance fees loom for aging fleets and the economy isn’t making it any easier. Tariff-related parts delays and high prices added to maintenance costs in 2025. Tariffs on new trucks and high borrowing costs have discouraged private fleets from making new equipment investments.

For private fleets already dealing with rising costs, aging equipment has many wondering whether they should continue investing in their trucking business. In 2025, 61% of fleets either shrank or remained the same size, according to the NPTC report.

Tariff turmoil

Tariffs tested the agility of fleets in 2025. As offshore suppliers’ goods were impacted by severe duties and new regulations, importers considered options for their supply chains. In December McKinsey & Company reported that of companies facing tariff impacts:

• 45% are increasing inventories as mitigation
• 39% are pursuing dual sourcing strategies
• 33% are developing supplier nearshoring or onshoring plans

“Shippers have had to become nimbler. They’ve had to step back and reevaluate how their supply chain runs and they’ve had to make different sourcing decisions because of tariffs,“ explains Rob McNeil, Senior VP of Sales & Supply Chain Solutions at TA Dedicated.

Quick, decisive sourcing moves rewarded some, and the inability to pivot hampered others. Relationships with partners experienced in port shifts and network changes also proved useful. And the ability to tap into existing assets facilitated fast shifts.

“We saw a big bump in imports from customers who wanted to get ahead of the tariffs at the beginning of the year. Since then we’ve focused on engineering solutions to efficiently distribute their surge of inventory,” Thorp says.

McNeil describes one TA Dedicated customer that made the move to home-shore production of a major product line rather than deal with the uncertainty of tariffs. A dedicated model of warehousing and transportation enabled the customer to tap into ready assets and not have to start from scratch.

Tariff announcements have quieted somewhat but the uncertainty of future tariff moves hasn’t gone away. The need to consider sourcing, storing and distribution options continuously remains. That makes agile resources and informed supply chain problem-solving key survival skills for shippers moving forward.

Thorp saw shippers become more interested in supply chain engineering in 2025. “More shippers are asking us to engage with their teams and provide ideas,” he says. “They recognize that our expertise and technology enables us to do what they can’t on their own faster and more effectively.”

English language proficiency and non-domiciled CDL crackdown

2025 saw swift and significant changes on the regulatory and enforcement front. DOT and FMCSA have intensified enforcement of English Language Proficiency (ELP) requirements and mandated a pause on the renewal of non-domiciled CDLs.

The enforcement initiatives were laid out in an Executive Order titled Enforcing Commonsense Rules of the Road for America’s Truck Drivers released on April 28, 2025.

The crackdown also follows in the wake of recent crashes in Florida and California that are being linked to safety shortcomings attributed to lax commercial driver licensing and ELP standards.

“This is a safety issue at its core. Our industry is looking to get bad actors off the highways and keep the motoring public safer. For safety-focused fleets and carriers with rigorous driver screening programs, there won’t be any impact.” McNeil says.

He adds that it is also a capacity issue. “As trucks come off the road, you can already see some tightening which is creating uncertainty.”

As of December, 9,500 drivers have been placed out-of-service (OOS) for English language violations, according to U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy.

Certain modes are being hit harder because of their reliance on foreign-born drivers. Drayage is a low-margin, high-efficiency business, which makes it especially reliant on non-domiciled CDL holders and foreign-born drivers. “As capacity continues to be purged from the market, we expect drayage to feel the impact sooner and more severely than other segments,” Thorp says.

Regulations take aim at safety

ELP and non-domiciled CDL enforcement initiatives are part of a wider initiative of the Trump administration to make the roads safer.

It includes a crackdown on “CDL mills”, a term Secretary Duffy has used to describe CDL training schools that are graduating and certifying unqualified drivers.

The focus of the initiative also includes stricter enforcement of drug and alcohol violations among drivers. 2025 saw new rules requiring state driver’s licensing authorities to automatically downgrade or revoke CDLs of drivers who have a “prohibited” Clearinghouse status.

Compliance with regulations that support safe trucking is the minimum that private and dedicated fleets must adhere to today.

A higher standard of safety is essential for fleets, though. “Solid, performing carriers today invest in formal training programs and the latest technology,” McNeil says. “With today’s liabilities and rising insurance costs, not investing in safe practices is something that will drive carriers out of business.”

These investments add to the list of growing costs facing private fleets. A key advantage of dedicated fleets is the ability to leverage economies of scale to deliver high quality training programs and new equipment featuring the latest safety equipment.

Prioritizing fleet safety and ensuring compliance with regulations are issues that can’t wait. “Transportation Secretary Duffy recently stated that shippers could be held accountable for unsafe practices if they load carriers that don’t meet ELP standards. Now more than ever shippers need to make sure they’re doing business with high-quality safe providers,” Thorp warns.

Freight fraud skyrockets

Incidents of cargo theft and freight fraud grew and dominated the news in 2025. Figures at the end of the year revealed cargo theft in the U.S. was up 29% year-over-year, according to Freightwaves.

Physical cargo theft still dominates the crime blotter, but freight fraud perpetrated digitally and virtually is driving the increase. Technology enables thieves to operate halfway around the world – at a safe distance from cargos and prosecution in the U.S. Load boards make tendering and accepting loads easy, but they also make it risky by putting loads in full view of law-abiding viewers and criminals alike.

“When you publicly post freight for all to see, you open yourself up for fraud,” Thorp explains.

Technology to vet carriers became de rigueur in 2025, but risk still remains. “Brokers are adding layers of vetting technology to protect themselves, but that just treats the symptom. It’s not the cure,” Thorp says. “The cure for freight fraud is to ship with a carrier or a dedicated fleet provider you trust, especially if you’re shipping high-risk freight like auto parts, high-end luxury retail items, tobacco products, electronics and alcoholic beverages that can be sold on the black market.”

Spot market question marks

As of November, dry van spot rates, net fuel, were pegged at $1.66 per mile, per the ACT Research December 2025 Freight Forecast. That’s up 1.2% year-over-year, not enough to change the shipper’s market that’s persisted for the last three years.

2025’s consistently low spot rates opened options for shippers in 2025 to look for savings on load boards. “In this market, everyone’s primarily focused on costs,” McNeil says.

Load boards have changed the landscape enabling shippers to shop low rates, try new providers and negotiate low-cost contracts. “Because of technology, brokers and owner-operators made it way higher up the shipper’s routing guide than ever before in 2025,” Thorp says.

These favorable conditions for shippers distract from hidden realities. The potential disruption to shippers reliant on low-cost carriers is real.

Thorp speculates that in this uncertain market where anything can happen, a large rate bump that defies expectations coupled with an ELP-driven drop in capacity would leave unprepared shippers in the lurch. In such a scenario, he says shippers would face a significant increase in pricing, uncertain capacity, and the challenges of onboarding new carriers.

These vulnerabilities are no way to go into an environment as uncertain as 2026 where tariff announcements or any number of weather or geopolitical disruptions would change supply chain realities overnight. Shippers seeking the rate stability and capacity protection of a private or dedicated fleet best remember that implementing these solutions requires planning and takes time.

Sustainability to the back burner

Moves made by the Trump administration have dampened shippers’ zeal for sustainability. In 2025, the ACT Rule enacted by California Air Resources Board (CARB) and similar rules in other states came into question. That’s left shippers and private fleets on their own to determine what’s required as well as what’s right.

Additionally the repeal of the GHG Phase 3 rule removed the compulsion to electrify. That spurred companies to reassess the effectiveness of BETs. “We saw a drop-off in interest from the shipping public in battery-electric trucks,” McNeil says. “The exception was with electric yard trucks, which are a much better solution than diesel yard trucks for maintenance reasons and the better driver experience.”

It’s an example of how sustainability programs have been deprioritized, not abandoned. A survey of executives conducted by EcoVadis found that nearly half of the respondents (48%) said their company’s sustainability investments remain unchanged, and 31% said their company is investing more in sustainability this year, “but promoting less.”

In 2025, TA Dedicated saw dedicated customers following suit. “They’re looking into alternative fuels like renewable diesel, biodiesel and renewable natural gas,” McNeil says. “ And they’re recognizing that diesel engines today are much cleaner than they were even three years ago.”

Thorp observed another important change in 2025. He says more shippers realized how much ground there is to gain by reducing trips through planning, cutting miles through route optimization, and filling empty space in trailers through load consolidation.

These efficiencies bring cost reduction as well as carbon reduction. Supply chain engineering leveraging advanced modeling is fueling the change. “We’re seeing a big demand for SCE services. It’s next-level and the technology and talent is something private fleets don’t have in-house,” Thorp says.

Data centers shaping transportation

The rush to build data centers that supply the processing power to support the AI boom has reached the transportation industry.

TA Dedicated saw demand for flatbed trucking to move equipment used in data centers increase dramatically in 2025. “We have one customer in this field that can’t grow fast enough. We’ve had to build more lots and warehousing to meet their rapid expansion,” McNeil says.

This customer’s needs are not unusual among companies serving the AI sector. Data center investment accounted for 92% of U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025, according to CRE Daily.

TA Dedicated operates a dedicated flatbed fleet to serve its customer, which is one of the largest manufacturers of power modules used in data centers. Growth in dedicated flatbed fleets was a bright spot of 2025.

Uncommon in the industry, TA Dedicated’s flatbed service for this customer demonstrates how dedicated models work well for complex and dynamic supply chains. The customer’s program defies common assumptions that dedicated only works for routine routes or service. In this case, the destinations and delivery requirements vary by the load.

Not all uncertainty is bad. As in this case, it brings opportunity for those who are prepared.

Private fleets going dedicated

In 2025, the uncertainties and burdens of being your own transportation department in an environment that is dynamic and highly complex drove private fleets to question long-held assumptions.

The fact that private fleets shifted nearly 4% of their capacity to dedicated carriers and other for-hire transportation in 2025 is telling.

2025 demonstrated that dedicated contract carriage (DCC) provides clear advantages amidst uncertainty, and 2026 promises to continue that story.

Read about five critical areas private fleets must plan for in the coming year in our first blog of 2026: Looking Forward: Five Musts for Private Fleets and Shippers Heading into 2026.