2026 Outlook: Five Musts for Shippers and Fleets Heading into the Unknown

The uncertainty of 2025 remains a stubborn fog that refuses to lift as we head into 2026. The atmosphere is thick with the unknowns of tariffs, regulatory enforcement, rates and other variables discussed in our Transportation 2025 post last month.

Beneath the cover of uncertainty, the landscape continues to shift. So lights on, mind your speed and be aware as we venture into the unknown. Here are five areas to pay special attention to on the road ahead.

1 – Check your equipment

America’s aging fleet looks to be a top issue in 2026. Private fleets are more than 1.5 years over the national average and especially vulnerable. As sure as the steady march of time, trucks are going to need more maintenance, break down more often, and operate with less fuel efficiency. They’ll also become less safe.

This is going to be a problem going forward. The costs of parts, maintenance, breakdown-related downtime, and degrading fuel efficiency will contribute to record-high operational costs.

“The costs of trucking continue to rise every year and private fleet costs are even higher than over-the-road fleets,” explains Rob McNeil, Senior VP of Sales & Supply Chain Solutions at TA Dedicated. “If trucking is not your core competency, shippers need to outsource to someone who’s more knowledgeable and who can take that capital off their balance sheet.”

Private fleets reduced new equipment purchases in 2025, according to the National Private Truck Council (NPTC) Benchmarking Survey Report 2025, but putting off replacements can only go on for so long. With today’s high borrowing costs and tariff-related truck prices, buying new equipment will challenge fleets that are strapped for capital.

This is a bind that promises to be a big one, especially for small fleets. “If you’re operating a fleet under 100 trucks, your people are probably wearing many hats which puts you at a disadvantage and opens you to risk,” observes Russell Thorp, VP of Sales & Logistics at TA Dedicated. “When you don’t have the infrastructure in place, including an adequate safety program, you’re asking for trouble.”

For as much as trucking costs continue to rise every year, private fleet costs are rising even faster. Private fleet costs have outpaced public for-hire fleet costs by 4.8% over the past four years, according to the NPTC survey. 2026 will be a year to take a hard look at costs and compare them with outsourcing options.

“For in-house fleets not making the right purchases, updates and safety investments, it’s only going to get more expensive in 2026,” McNeil says.

2 – Make safety your issue

Truck safety promises to be a main focus for the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) in 2026. Plan to make it a main issue for you.

High on the list of safety priorities of this administration is enforcing English language proficiency (ELP) regulations and restricting non-domiciled CDLs. Fleets that don’t comply with ELP requirements or that hire drivers with invalid licenses risk greater scrutiny and penalties heading into the new year.

9,500 drivers were placed out-of-service for ELP violations in 2025. Carriers and fleets should assume the same or greater enforcement in 2026. FMCSA’s focus on ELP is just one of several areas they’re targeting for greater enforcement, including:

• Drug and alcohol clearinghouse crackdowns
• Greater scrutiny on driver training and certification programs

“The current administration has made it a priority to make the roads safer by taking the bad actors off the road,” McNeil says. “The regulations aren’t new, but shippers should expect greater enforcement from the FMCSA in 2026.”

That makes compliance and quality safety training a top priority moving forward. Fleets and carriers aren’t the only ones at risk for noncompliance. U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy indicated that shippers who contract with carriers that don’t meet ELP standards will be held liable.

“Using low-cost carriers that don’t adequately invest in safety can backfire. Your shipments can be delayed, there can be reputation risk, and now there’s a new risk of being penalized,” McNeil adds.

The crackdown highlights the need for fleets and carriers to invest in safety training, equipment, and compliance.

“Greater enforcement also rewards the truckers that have been doing things the right way,” McNeil says. “Safety is our core value at TA Dedicated and we’ve made continual investments in training and technology that provide our customers the safety advantage.”

On top of new compliance liabilities, crash risks remain high. According to a 2024 FMCSA report, the average cost of a fatal crash involving a large truck is $14,578,771. Tort reform remains elusive and the risk of nuclear verdicts against trucking companies hasn’t gone away.

A high-quality safety program is a must for all carriers and fleets moving forward, especially in light of today’s high insurance costs. But the truth is, carriers and fleets are challenged to fund, maintain, and manage one. In many small- to mid-sized fleets, compliance is one of many hats worn by one overworked employee.

Having a poor safety program leads to high insurance premiums. In today’s insurance market, the impact can be fateful for carriers. “For carriers that don’t have safe practices, the high insurance costs could be something that drives them out of business,” McNeil says.

3 – Beware of low-cost strategies

The low rates and ample capacity of the last three years have fogged the potential perils that lie ahead in 2026.

There are signs of change ahead that shippers must be aware of. “Demand is about as low as it’s been, but we did start to see small signs of change toward the end of the year in the number of tender rejections,” Thorp observes. This supports reporting from ACT Research that capacity is tightening at an accelerated pace due to depressed truck production and carrier profitability.

While the North American Transportation Services Association (NATSA) expects modest increases in spot rates in 2026, there are a host of factors that could bring even bigger changes to shippers. A double-digit spike is a possibility if certain conditions occur, according to McNeil. If ELP and non-domiciled CDL enforcement combine with high equipment costs, significant capacity could be forced from the market.

In this scenario, shippers with low-cost strategies will be impacted. Shippers who have benefitted from load board values and freedom from contractual obligations will face budget-busting rate hikes, a scramble to match low prices and capacity elsewhere, and the challenge of onboarding new carriers.

Shippers’ desire to drive out costs while they can is justified, but it does have consequences. “When the dust settles and there’s no capacity in the market, it’s going to be more expensive for shippers without commitments,” Thorp says. In a market where rates are rising and capacity is tightening, set contract rates, longstanding partnerships, and dedicated capacity provide stability and consistency.

Private and dedicated fleets insulate shippers from price fluctuations and other major risks in the industry right now, including the rising risk of freight fraud facilitated by load board use and growing compliance liabilities from today’s enforcement environment.

“It’s why it’s so important to work with a qualified transportation provider for the long term. As a true dedicated partner, TA Dedicated is there to help shippers accomplish their goals in this market and the next,” McNeil says.

4 – Get the supply chain engineering edge

Shippers’ march to drive out costs will continue in 2026. As they look to reduce costs throughout the supply chain, supply chain engineering (SCE) will play an increasingly important role.

Cost savings achieved through optimizations represent a wide frontier of opportunity. Route optimization, load optimization, network design, advanced modeling, scenario planning, and digital twins are being used to devise detailed solutions and create new efficiencies.

“If you’re running your own private fleet, it’s critical to constantly challenge your assumptions about performance,” McNeil says. “Modeling directs shippers to opportunities to optimize. It’s like a health check for fleets.”

Demand for TA Dedicated’s SCE services increased in 2025. As tariff announcements caused shippers to rethink supply chains, TA Dedicated’s engineers were called in to consult on scenarios and solutions. Tariff uncertainty remains as we head into 2026, and the need to quickly model supply chain pivots continues.

Software and expertise in SCE provide a competitive advantage in ongoing optimizations. For private fleets, that means investing in technology and hiring experts. For shippers, it means engaging an outsourced solution, integrating systems, and collecting data.

Dedicated fleet providers offer relief from the cost and complexity of SCE. “Optimizing fleets involves complex data-based decisions. Private fleets don’t always have the technology or talent to do it right,” McNeil explains.

5 – Pivot with the help of partners

2026 is riddled with uncertainties that have the potential to bring rapid-fire changes to rates and capacity.

In 2025, TA Dedicated saw shippers who successfully pivoted in the face of tariffs prosper. The same will hold true in 2026 when it comes to tariffs and other disruptions.

“Shippers have had to build responsiveness and resilience. They don’t have the time or resources to manage a large carrier base, so they’re leaning into providers who can think strategically and deliver multiple services,” McNeil says.

It’s a mistake to get too comfortable in 2026. Uncertainty is today’s reality, and the ability to make rapid supply chain shifts is a necessity.

For example, Tropical Storm Risk forecasts 14 named storms for the year, including seven hurricanes, three of which are expected to reach at least Category 3 strength.

While Maersk resumed sailings through the Red Sea, the company cautioned that this does not signal a full return to the trans-Suez corridor.

What 2026 will look like is anyone’s guess; however, two truths apply in any transportation environment: supply chain risk is bad, and the ability to pivot to opportunities is good.

“Shippers can’t control the weather or tariffs. But having a dedicated fleet can drive out uncertainty,” Thorp says.

Know your unknowns

Heading into the new year, fleets need to ask whether the growing costs of owning equipment and operating a safe fleet are justifiable and sustainable over the long term.

Fleets also need to ask whether their plant and equipment investments could meet a volume surge or support rapid network expansion.

Talk to our team about how you can be better prepared to launch into the unknown in 2026. We’re happy to share everything we know. Simply visit us at www.tadedicated.com.